Illinois May Be The Worst Democratic Gerrymander In The Country

The worst Democratic gerrymander in the state is arguably in Illinois, as it established off a significant-stakes sport of musical chairs amongst the state’s 5 Republican Home customers.

Nathaniel Rakich: 1 of our biggest presidents, Abraham Lincoln, was a Republican from Illinois. But the state’s new gerrymandered congressional map appears to be hell-bent on producing Republican congressmen from Illinois an endangered species.

There are at this time five Republicans in Illinois’s U.S. Residence delegation. But that was apparently much too a lot of for the Democrats who ended up in cost of Illinois redistricting previous drop. They drew a map that packed all five Republicans into just three congressional districts.

That kicked off a higher-stakes game of electoral musical chairs. At to start with, Congressman Mike Bost and Congresswoman Mary Miller have been thrown jointly into the 12th District, while Congressman Rodney Davis was alone in the 15th District. But the much-suitable Miller apparently made a decision she experienced a superior shot of remaining in Congress if she ran for reelection in the 15th in opposition to Davis, who is far more moderate. In the meantime, above in the 16th District, Congressmen Darin LaHood and Adam Kinzinger were also double-bunked, a predicament that was only fixed when Kinzinger resolved not to look for reelection.

As a result, Democrats could keep 14 of Illinois’s 17 congressional seats immediately after the 2022 election. That is 82 percent of seats, even though they’ll in all probability acquire considerably less than 60 p.c of the state’s well known vote. That’s probable only because of how lots of Republican votes are “wasted” under the new map — both since they’re currently being cast in a district that is currently securely pink or because they are outnumbered by Democratic votes. Possibly way, people votes do not depend towards a gain.

Primarily based on the 2020 presidential election benefits, this map wastes 1.9 million Republican votes. That’s nearly two times the range of Democratic votes that are squandered underneath the map.

Theoretically, if Republicans and Democrats had the identical quantity of squandered votes in Illinois, Republicans would acquire 2.2 a lot more congressional seats than underneath a gerrymander of this caliber. By that evaluate, Illinois is the worst gerrymander in the country drawn by Democrats.

Illinois’s aggressive gerrymander is a large part of the reason Democrats have gained seats from redistricting nationwide this yr. But it could also backfire. In order to draw so quite a few blue seats, Democrats experienced to distribute their voters thin, leaving some districts with only a modest Democratic lean. If Republicans have a sturdy 2022 election, they could conclude up winning not only their a few safely purple seats but also these gentle-blue seats. This gerrymander could close up currently being the most significant blunder in Illinois because Mrs. O’Leary’s cow knocked in excess of that lantern.

To be positive, this map will most probable aid Democrats in their quest to keep on to the Property. But it’s also possible that they’ve bitten off extra than they can chew.