Managing Escalation While Competing Effectively in the Indo-Pacific

The expansion of Chinese navy action and abilities in the Indo-Pacific area has led the United States to undertake its have boost in exercise in the location in excess of the previous 10 years. As the United States expands its army functions to safeguard its regional pursuits, the prospective reactions of China are a important thought. This report presents U.S. military planners and policymakers with assistance relating to how the attributes of distinct possible U.S. army routines may perhaps affect Chinese perceptions and reactions, both in ways that the United States could favor, these types of as by enhancing deterrence of People’s Republic of China (PRC) aggression against U.S. allies and partners, or in methods that the United States may would like to keep away from, these kinds of as by rising the risk of aggression and escalation.

The authors created a framework for assessing likely Chinese reactions to U.S. armed forces pursuits. The framework identifies the vital factors that push Chinese contemplating and reactions, assesses how the attributes of U.S. activities — their area, the U.S. allies or partners included, their military capabilities, and the community profile or messaging that accompanies them — have the potential to have an affect on Chinese reactions by each individual key issue, and offers a typology of prospective Chinese reactions arranged by their amount of depth.

The authors also designed a thorough set of probable armed service routines that the United States could undertake in the Indo-Pacific and evaluated the implications of the framework, highlighting how the PRC would likely perceive and react to different styles of routines.

The study described right here was commissioned by Pacific Air Forces (PACAF) and conducted inside of the Technique and Doctrine Program of RRAND Venture AIR Force.

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